A recent Hawkeye State Poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL reveals that former President Donald Trump is maintaining a commanding lead over potential 2024 rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the Iowa Caucus. The poll, conducted less than a year before the general election, is part of the Rust Belt Poll, which covers the “Big Six” states of Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

According to the poll results, Donald Trump leads the pack with 51.3%, while Ron DeSantis trails behind at 16.8%, and Nikki Haley garners 12.8% support. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy secures 5.4% of the vote, while no other candidate manages to break the 5% mark. A mere 1.2% of respondents opted for “someone else,” and 8.4% remain “undecided.”

The most striking aspect of the poll is the unwavering support for President Trump among caucus-goers. Nearly 7 out of 10 Trump supporters say they cannot be swayed to change their minds at the caucus, a significant increase from just over 6 in 10 in August. In contrast, only 3 in 10 DeSantis supporters and 2 in 10 Haley supporters express a similar level of determination.

Rich Baris, Director of BIG DATA POLL, commented on the results, stating, “While the latest results represent a slight uptick in support for President Trump, his supporters are dug in like Alabama ticks. Of all the caucus-goers who say they cannot be persuaded to change their mind, nearly 80% are supporters of the former president.”

The poll also shows a slight decline for Governor DeSantis, who had 19.2% support in August, while Ambassador Haley has experienced a notable increase of over 10 points from her 2.3% support in the same period. However, it remains uncertain whether Haley’s current level of support has further room for growth in Iowa, given her relatively poor performance among self-identified conservatives.

President Trump maintains a dominant position across all education demographics, except among caucus-goers with advanced degrees. He enjoys strong support from approximately 6 in 10 individuals with a high school degree or less, as well as those with some college or a 2-year degree. Even among caucus-goers with a 4-year degree, President Trump leads with 47.2%, compared to DeSantis’s 20.2% and Haley’s 15.7%.

Rust Belt Poll – Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

If the Republican caucus for the presidential nomination was held today, for whom would you vote?

Geographically, President Trump leads in every region of Iowa, including the vote-rich Eastern Cities, which encompass Dubuque, Davenport, Cedar Rapids, and Iowa City. While the Des Moines Area provides a substantial advantage to the former president, it is also the region most supportive of Governor DeSantis, at 22.1%. Across the rest of the state, President Trump maintains a significant lead over DeSantis and Haley, with 53.3% support compared to 15.7% and 12.3%, respectively.